UConn vs. Duke prediction, odds, spread, time: 2026 NCAA Elite Eight picks from proven model

The top-seeded Duke Blue Devils battle the second-seeded Connecticut Huskies for a spot in the Final Four when they meet in a 2026 NCAA Tournament East Region Elite Eight matchup on Sunday. UConn advanced with a thrilling 67-63 win over third-seeded Michigan State in the Sweet 16 on Friday, while Duke held off fifth-seeded St. John’s 80-75. The Huskies (32-5), who finished second in the Big East at 17-3, are seeking their eighth Final Four appearance and seventh NCAA championship, all since 1999. The Blue Devils (35-2), who won the ACC regular season at 17-1 and tournament championship, are looking to reach the Final Four for the 19th time and win their sixth NCAA title. Duke lists Caleb Foster as questionable.

Tipoff from Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., is set for 5:05 p.m. ET. The Blue Devils are 5.5-point favorites in the latest UConn vs. Duke odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 133.5. Before making any Duke vs. UConn picks, check out the UConn vs. Duke predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Elite Eight on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Now, the model has simulated UConn vs. Duke 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Duke UConn:

Top UConn vs. Duke predictions

After 10,000 simulations of UConn vs. Duke, SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total (133.5 points). The Over has hit in six of the last 10 Duke games. UConn is 6-4 against the spread in its last 10 games. Duke, meanwhile, is 5-5 ATS in its last 10.

The model projects the Huskies to have five players score 11.3 points or more, including Tarris Reed Jr. and Alex Karaban, both who are projected to score 14.1 points. The Blue Devils are projected to have two players score 14 points or more, led by Cameron Boozer, who is projected to score 20.3 points. The model is projecting 147 combined points as the Over clears in 84% of simulations. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Duke vs. UConn picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Duke vs. UConn 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Duke vs. UConn, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the UConn vs. Duke spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.